Climate change forum
The Let's-Talk-Climate series kicked off it's second year with a forum Jan. 25 that included Angus Duncan, Chair of the Oregon Global Warming Commission, Oregon Senator Michael Dembrow, Chair of the Senate Committee on the Environment and Natural Resources, and Shilpa Joshi, Organizing Director for Renew Oregon. The take-away message is that proposed bills for greenhouse gas reductions and transportation are ready for the 2017 legislative session, and citizen advocacy/activism are crucial to the success of these bills. That means engaging with legislators, especially Republicans.
Angus Duncan has many affiliations with individuals and groups associated with climate science. At this forum, his presentation was concerned with the update to the OGWC biennial report which was last issued in September 2015. An informational update will be made available for the 2017 Oregon Legislative Session starting next week, and a formal report, the fifth biennial report, will be issued later this year. Duncan's talk was aided by graphics shown in the 2015 report. The main objective of OGWC is to show progress toward the voluntary goal established in 2007 to reduce greenhouse gas emission in the state of Oregon 75% below 1990 levels by 2050. The major emission categories include electricity, industry, and transportation, and agriculture.
Duncan's emphasized two positive observations: 1) Oregon is in a position to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for utilities (electricity category) and transportation to meet the 2050 goal, and 2) as specified in senate bill 1547 signed into law last year, Oregon and it's two major investor owned utilities have agreed to phase out electricity from coal by 2035. The 2017 legislative session will address reductions in the transportation category, but that undertaking will compete with resolving a contentious budget shortfall approaching $2 billion.
Since Oregon established emission reduction goals in 2007 to attain a 10% reduction below 1990 levels by 2020, we have seen a dip in carbon dioxide emissions due to the 2009-2011 recession. This was followed by a rise due to a buying spree for trucks and SUVs, encouraged by low gasoline prices. There is a favorable downward trend due to a number of policy changes such as the Renewable Portfolio Standards and efficiency upgrades in utilities and industry. The net trajectory is level but a drop will occur when coal usage ceases at the PGE Boardman Generating Facility in2020. The 2017 legislature is encouraged to push for electric vehicle usage with incentives such as rebates on purchases and significant increases in charging stations infrastructure. Tri Met is starting to look at electric buses.
A favored scenario by PGE is to replace coal usage with natural gas plants to guarantee base load. Duncan encourages us to resist natural gas plants in favor of more solar installations and purchasing as much hydro as needed from BPA. He asks us to submit comments to authorizing agencies such as the Oregon Citizens' Utility Board promoting the use of renewable sources and emerging storage concepts. He streses “don’t buy a 40-year gas plant.” Duncan pointed out the remarkable inroads being made by solar and wind power in the past few years. Life cycle costs for large scale solar and wind projects are par with natural gas and better than coal.
Oregon forests store 3 billion tons of carbon. Fires and clear cutting release huge emissions. He said, “We are trying to figure out the forest.” The OGWC Web site contains information on a recently reconvened forest carbon task force to address carbon inventories.
Senator Dembrow said the $1.8 billion biennial budget shortfall will be a struggle in the upcoming legislative session. Republicans refuse to accept more taxes so there's a search for where cuts can be made. A transportation bill (or “transportation package”) is high priority. A modest increase in gasoline taxes would be of benefit but some Republican votes would be needed to get a 3/5ths majority. Again we expect Republicans to use the repeal of the Clean Fuels Bill, extended in 2015, as a bargaining chip. His personal interest for the Environment and Natural Resources Committee agenda, beyond the climate bill, would be to look at the intersection of public health and environmental health.
As Chair of the Environment and Natural Resources Committee, Senator Dembrow will oversee the deliberations on senate bill 557, the update of the Health Climate Bill that died with the end of the 2016 session. The Vice Chair is Alan Olsen (R, Canby), a climate change denier. Dembrow anticipates that it will be difficult to pass SB 557, but he hopes to start discussions about 3 weeks into the session. He asks for help from activists. Shilpa Joshi has much to say about this help and how it can be provided, as stated below.
Dembrow was travelling to California to meet with legislators and other interested parties in the Western Climate Initiative. Although many states and Canadian provinces have signed on to the WCI, only California and Quebec have an active cap and trade program. They linked together in 2013 and pooled their GhG emitters. Ontario is on track to join CA and QB in 2018. To describe the status in Oregon, Dembrow will have the new bill, the updated report on GhG emission reductions, and also a completed study form the Oregon Department ofEnvironmental Quality on Considerations for Designing a Cap-and-TradeProgram in Oregon.
Shilpa Joshi of Renew Oregon talked about her organization's affiliation with the Oregon Environmental Council, Climate Solutions, and the Oregon League of Conservation Voters. They are organizing a lobby day in Salem for March 23 to engage with legislators on SB 557 and related bills. They plan grass roots organizing with attention to rural communities represented by Republicans and small businesses throughout the state. They plan to emphasize losses from forest fires, droughts, and recreational opportunities due to higher summer temperatures..
Renew Oregon will reach out to other organization like Rogue Climate, Oregon Rural Action, county Democratic Party leads, and others. SB 557 has been titled the Clean Energy Jobs Bill with provisions to get resources to low-income rural areas in eastern and southern counties and to address job opportunities in other disadvantaged areas.
Questions From The Audience
How is California Doing? No metrics were given but Dembrow stated that CA, in partnership with QB, were the first in the WCI to implement pricing and they are working on any shortcomings.
What is the likelihood of SB 557 passing? Dembrow said it is not likely unless citizens lobby legislators and “tell their stories,” referring to positive outcomes. For example, two Oregon counties were unaffected by the recent recession due to revenues from wind power. Don't call the bill a tax and try to get Republican votes by giving them something.
Could the transportation package support cleaner transit and electric vehicles? Yes, but again, we citizens need to lobby legislators for things like clean diesel and vehicle charging infrastructure.
Can Nik Blosser, the new chief of staff for Governor Brown, be an influence? Yes, he has a good record for supporting environmental issues.
Can Senator Jeff Merkley, D, be an influence? He has a very favorable record on environmental issues and can be of help.
Angus Duncan has many affiliations with individuals and groups associated with climate science. At this forum, his presentation was concerned with the update to the OGWC biennial report which was last issued in September 2015. An informational update will be made available for the 2017 Oregon Legislative Session starting next week, and a formal report, the fifth biennial report, will be issued later this year. Duncan's talk was aided by graphics shown in the 2015 report. The main objective of OGWC is to show progress toward the voluntary goal established in 2007 to reduce greenhouse gas emission in the state of Oregon 75% below 1990 levels by 2050. The major emission categories include electricity, industry, and transportation, and agriculture.
Duncan's emphasized two positive observations: 1) Oregon is in a position to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for utilities (electricity category) and transportation to meet the 2050 goal, and 2) as specified in senate bill 1547 signed into law last year, Oregon and it's two major investor owned utilities have agreed to phase out electricity from coal by 2035. The 2017 legislative session will address reductions in the transportation category, but that undertaking will compete with resolving a contentious budget shortfall approaching $2 billion.
Since Oregon established emission reduction goals in 2007 to attain a 10% reduction below 1990 levels by 2020, we have seen a dip in carbon dioxide emissions due to the 2009-2011 recession. This was followed by a rise due to a buying spree for trucks and SUVs, encouraged by low gasoline prices. There is a favorable downward trend due to a number of policy changes such as the Renewable Portfolio Standards and efficiency upgrades in utilities and industry. The net trajectory is level but a drop will occur when coal usage ceases at the PGE Boardman Generating Facility in2020. The 2017 legislature is encouraged to push for electric vehicle usage with incentives such as rebates on purchases and significant increases in charging stations infrastructure. Tri Met is starting to look at electric buses.
A favored scenario by PGE is to replace coal usage with natural gas plants to guarantee base load. Duncan encourages us to resist natural gas plants in favor of more solar installations and purchasing as much hydro as needed from BPA. He asks us to submit comments to authorizing agencies such as the Oregon Citizens' Utility Board promoting the use of renewable sources and emerging storage concepts. He streses “don’t buy a 40-year gas plant.” Duncan pointed out the remarkable inroads being made by solar and wind power in the past few years. Life cycle costs for large scale solar and wind projects are par with natural gas and better than coal.
Oregon forests store 3 billion tons of carbon. Fires and clear cutting release huge emissions. He said, “We are trying to figure out the forest.” The OGWC Web site contains information on a recently reconvened forest carbon task force to address carbon inventories.
Senator Dembrow said the $1.8 billion biennial budget shortfall will be a struggle in the upcoming legislative session. Republicans refuse to accept more taxes so there's a search for where cuts can be made. A transportation bill (or “transportation package”) is high priority. A modest increase in gasoline taxes would be of benefit but some Republican votes would be needed to get a 3/5ths majority. Again we expect Republicans to use the repeal of the Clean Fuels Bill, extended in 2015, as a bargaining chip. His personal interest for the Environment and Natural Resources Committee agenda, beyond the climate bill, would be to look at the intersection of public health and environmental health.
As Chair of the Environment and Natural Resources Committee, Senator Dembrow will oversee the deliberations on senate bill 557, the update of the Health Climate Bill that died with the end of the 2016 session. The Vice Chair is Alan Olsen (R, Canby), a climate change denier. Dembrow anticipates that it will be difficult to pass SB 557, but he hopes to start discussions about 3 weeks into the session. He asks for help from activists. Shilpa Joshi has much to say about this help and how it can be provided, as stated below.
Dembrow was travelling to California to meet with legislators and other interested parties in the Western Climate Initiative. Although many states and Canadian provinces have signed on to the WCI, only California and Quebec have an active cap and trade program. They linked together in 2013 and pooled their GhG emitters. Ontario is on track to join CA and QB in 2018. To describe the status in Oregon, Dembrow will have the new bill, the updated report on GhG emission reductions, and also a completed study form the Oregon Department ofEnvironmental Quality on Considerations for Designing a Cap-and-TradeProgram in Oregon.
Shilpa Joshi of Renew Oregon talked about her organization's affiliation with the Oregon Environmental Council, Climate Solutions, and the Oregon League of Conservation Voters. They are organizing a lobby day in Salem for March 23 to engage with legislators on SB 557 and related bills. They plan grass roots organizing with attention to rural communities represented by Republicans and small businesses throughout the state. They plan to emphasize losses from forest fires, droughts, and recreational opportunities due to higher summer temperatures..
Renew Oregon will reach out to other organization like Rogue Climate, Oregon Rural Action, county Democratic Party leads, and others. SB 557 has been titled the Clean Energy Jobs Bill with provisions to get resources to low-income rural areas in eastern and southern counties and to address job opportunities in other disadvantaged areas.
Questions From The Audience
How is California Doing? No metrics were given but Dembrow stated that CA, in partnership with QB, were the first in the WCI to implement pricing and they are working on any shortcomings.
What is the likelihood of SB 557 passing? Dembrow said it is not likely unless citizens lobby legislators and “tell their stories,” referring to positive outcomes. For example, two Oregon counties were unaffected by the recent recession due to revenues from wind power. Don't call the bill a tax and try to get Republican votes by giving them something.
Could the transportation package support cleaner transit and electric vehicles? Yes, but again, we citizens need to lobby legislators for things like clean diesel and vehicle charging infrastructure.
Can Nik Blosser, the new chief of staff for Governor Brown, be an influence? Yes, he has a good record for supporting environmental issues.
Can Senator Jeff Merkley, D, be an influence? He has a very favorable record on environmental issues and can be of help.
Status Report: Climate Change Actions In Oregon
DEQ's Study of a Market Path to Cutting Greenhouse Gas Emissions
What is this study?
In March 2016, legislature requested DEQ conduct a study on how a market-based approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions would work in Oregon. DEQ will be conducting this study throughout the remainder of the year in preparation for presenting a report to legislature when it reconvenes in February 2017. To conduct this study, DEQ will assess and document several considerations related to the development and implementation of a market based program for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, including:
•Program design elements, such as the scope and stringency of the emission limit, allocation of allowances to emit greenhouse gases, cost containment measures, and market functionality;
•The scope and design of the greenhouse gas emissions cap necessary to link with other jurisdictions and to meet Oregon’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals;
•Interaction between a market-based program and existing state programs;
•How existing market-based programs in other jurisdictions control impacts to different types of businesses; and
•The impact and benefit of existing market-based programs on disadvantaged populations and rural communities.
A public meeting was held on June 10 to discuss and accept comments on the draft outline of the study. At this meeting the project manager, Colin McDonaha, announced that a draft report will be able for public review in September.
Prioritizing Climate Justice In Oregon
That's the title of a July 25 article by Sightline Institute presenting an overview of a 27 page study on "What Is The Best Way To ensure Climate Justice In Oregon." This study presents an opportunity for Oregon to craft policy for climate justice, including a transportation bill with a provision for increasing gas taxes. The study examines Oregon's unique demographics and constitutional restrictions, and renders well thought out recommendations that should be addressed by the policy analysts and the Oregon Legislature.
Sightline Institute Series On Washington State Initiative 732
For those of you who subscribe to Sightline Institute, you're aware that they publish solid and respected research. Alan Durning, the Executive Director, and Kristin Eberhard, a Senior Researcher, completed a 3-part series on Washington's 2016 ballot initiative that will influence Oregon's legislative efforts next year. So, information presented in this series, despite many constitutional differences, is of value to Oregon policy makers, legislators, and oversight groups like the Oregon Environmental Council. Here's the articles:
Published August 1, Weighing CarbonWA's Tax Swap Ballot Initiative
Published August 2, Does I-732 Really Have A "Budget Hole"?
Published August 3, Weighing The Critiques Of CarbonWA Initiative 732
A report on the healthy climate bill
- Carbon Emission Control Laws
According to many if not most prominent economists and distinguished scientists and scientific sources globally, placing a fee on carbon emissions is the most effective and efficient way to decrease greenhouse gas emissions. If implemented aggressively and with determination in this decade, the current generation may have a chance to avert the worst scenario for global warming: an uninhabitable planet for a majority of biological life. Oregon’s potential contribution to the solution is small but upholds our legacy of being at the forefront of environmental issues.
Collectively, 39 programs globally place a price on carbon and return the revenue in a way that benefits society (see this article from Sightline Institute). Nine northeastern states have entered into a compact to use a market based approach to price carbon. California has done the same and the results over the 3 and some years of implementation have been very favorable. What is favorable? The emissions are decreasing at a desirable rate and the economy is not being seriously impacted by the program.
The Oregon Legislature has two bills in the pipeline that could be the answer to pricing carbon, Senate Bill 965 and House Bill 3470. The Senate bill defines a cap and dividend approach that returns the revenue to Oregon taxpayers in the form of an annual dividend, therefore, revenue neutral. The House bill defines targets and other administrative matters. We in Oregon only need the political will to push them along.
During the Oregon Legislative Assembly in the first half of 2015, there were two favorable committee hearings: the House hearing conducted April 14 and the Senate hearing conducted June 10. At the April hearing expert testimony was provided by the following (access link to hear recording):
- Matt Rodriquez, Secretary for Environmental Protection, California Environmental Protection Agency;
- Sean Penrith, Executive Director, The Climate Trust
- Jeff Renfro, Senior Economist, Northwest Economic Research Center, Portland State University
- Russ Beaton, Professor Emeritus of Economics, Willamette University
Now is the time to advocate for these well vetted bills by contacting Oregon Senators and Representatives to move these bills through the chambers and on to the governor during the 2016 short session. Access www.oregonclimate.org/blog for more information.
- Prepared by Don Merrick - November 2015
Background
In 1988 the Governor created the Oregon Task Force On Global Warming, inspired by the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) and related federal actions to the emerging science. Their work resulted in a 1990 report with hundreds of proposed action for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Recommendations for legislation would not take place until 2004.
In December 2004, the Governor’s Advisory Group on Global Warming issued its report calling for immediate and significant action to address global warming. In partnership with the Governor’s advisory group, 50 scientists signed the “Scientific Consensus Statement on the Likely Impacts of Climate Change on the Pacific Northwest,” which examined the risks of climate change. The scientists recommended additional scientific studies and modeling of the effects of climate change on the atmosphere, oceans and land, as well as modeling of the effects of economic and management policies.
Responding to this consensus, the 74th (2007-2008) Oregon Legislative Assembly Regular Session passed House Bill (HB) 3543 to address the risks associated with climate change and funding to address these risks. HB 3543 created the Oregon Global Warming Commission (OGWC) which was directed to: “recommend ways to coordinate state and local efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Oregon consistent with the greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals established by section 2 of HB 3543 and shall recommend efforts to help Oregon prepare for the effects of global warming.” The Office of the Governor and state agencies, working on regional efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, were tasked to coordinate with the OGWC on these efforts. See OGWC web site for details.
HB 3543 also created the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) within the Oregon Department of Higher Education. OCCRI is administered by OSU and other institutional partners within the University System. HB 3543 states that the purpose of OCCRI is to assess the state of climate change science as it relates to the state of Oregon, and the likely effects of climate change on the state. See OCCRI web site for details.
The Legislative Assembly declares that it is the policy of this state to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Oregon pursuant to the following greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals: 1) by 2010, arrest the growth of Oregon's greenhouse gas emissions and begin to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, 2) by 2020, achieve greenhouse gas levels that are 10 percent below 1990 levels, and 3) by 2050, achieve greenhouse gas levels that are at least 75 percent below 1990 levels. Goal 1 has been met. Goal 2 tracking is represented by the latest OGWC Report To The Legislature 2013, and the 117 page report is available at the OGWC we site.
In 2014 the Northwest Economic Research Center at PSU has been tasked to prepare a report for the Senate Interim Committee on Energy and Natural Resources by late November on imposing a revenue-neutral carbon tax. The Senate Committee will thereafter convene to discuss the proposal.
Summary: OCCRI and OGWC submit assessments in compliance with HB 3543. See OGWC Report To Legislature 2013 for details. Both political parties in the Legislative Assembly are coming around to recognize the potential benefits of placing a price on carbon emissions through a neutral-revenue tax. The last assessment report from IPCC, referred to as AR5, issued earlier this year as a draft and the US National Climate Assessment Report also issued earlier this year significantly elevated the sense of urgency in addressing climate change.
Prepared by Don Merrick, September, 2014
According to many if not most prominent economists and distinguished scientists and scientific sources globally, placing a fee on carbon emissions is the most effective and efficient way to decrease greenhouse gas emissions. If implemented aggressively and with determination in this decade, the current generation may have a chance to avert the worst scenario for global warming: an uninhabitable planet for a majority of biological life. Oregon’s potential contribution to the solution is small but upholds our legacy of being at the forefront of environmental issues.
Collectively, 39 programs globally place a price on carbon and return the revenue in a way that benefits society (see this article from Sightline Institute). Nine northeastern states have entered into a compact to use a market based approach to price carbon. California has done the same and the results over the 3 and some years of implementation have been very favorable. What is favorable? The emissions are decreasing at a desirable rate and the economy is not being seriously impacted by the program.
The Oregon Legislature has two bills in the pipeline that could be the answer to pricing carbon, Senate Bill 965 and House Bill 3470. The Senate bill defines a cap and dividend approach that returns the revenue to Oregon taxpayers in the form of an annual dividend, therefore, revenue neutral. The House bill defines targets and other administrative matters. We in Oregon only need the political will to push them along.
During the Oregon Legislative Assembly in the first half of 2015, there were two favorable committee hearings: the House hearing conducted April 14 and the Senate hearing conducted June 10. At the April hearing expert testimony was provided by the following (access link to hear recording):
- Matt Rodriquez, Secretary for Environmental Protection, California Environmental Protection Agency;
- Sean Penrith, Executive Director, The Climate Trust
- Jeff Renfro, Senior Economist, Northwest Economic Research Center, Portland State University
- Russ Beaton, Professor Emeritus of Economics, Willamette University
Now is the time to advocate for these well vetted bills by contacting Oregon Senators and Representatives to move these bills through the chambers and on to the governor during the 2016 short session. Access www.oregonclimate.org/blog for more information.
- Prepared by Don Merrick - November 2015
Background
In 1988 the Governor created the Oregon Task Force On Global Warming, inspired by the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) and related federal actions to the emerging science. Their work resulted in a 1990 report with hundreds of proposed action for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Recommendations for legislation would not take place until 2004.
In December 2004, the Governor’s Advisory Group on Global Warming issued its report calling for immediate and significant action to address global warming. In partnership with the Governor’s advisory group, 50 scientists signed the “Scientific Consensus Statement on the Likely Impacts of Climate Change on the Pacific Northwest,” which examined the risks of climate change. The scientists recommended additional scientific studies and modeling of the effects of climate change on the atmosphere, oceans and land, as well as modeling of the effects of economic and management policies.
Responding to this consensus, the 74th (2007-2008) Oregon Legislative Assembly Regular Session passed House Bill (HB) 3543 to address the risks associated with climate change and funding to address these risks. HB 3543 created the Oregon Global Warming Commission (OGWC) which was directed to: “recommend ways to coordinate state and local efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Oregon consistent with the greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals established by section 2 of HB 3543 and shall recommend efforts to help Oregon prepare for the effects of global warming.” The Office of the Governor and state agencies, working on regional efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, were tasked to coordinate with the OGWC on these efforts. See OGWC web site for details.
HB 3543 also created the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) within the Oregon Department of Higher Education. OCCRI is administered by OSU and other institutional partners within the University System. HB 3543 states that the purpose of OCCRI is to assess the state of climate change science as it relates to the state of Oregon, and the likely effects of climate change on the state. See OCCRI web site for details.
The Legislative Assembly declares that it is the policy of this state to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Oregon pursuant to the following greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals: 1) by 2010, arrest the growth of Oregon's greenhouse gas emissions and begin to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, 2) by 2020, achieve greenhouse gas levels that are 10 percent below 1990 levels, and 3) by 2050, achieve greenhouse gas levels that are at least 75 percent below 1990 levels. Goal 1 has been met. Goal 2 tracking is represented by the latest OGWC Report To The Legislature 2013, and the 117 page report is available at the OGWC we site.
In 2014 the Northwest Economic Research Center at PSU has been tasked to prepare a report for the Senate Interim Committee on Energy and Natural Resources by late November on imposing a revenue-neutral carbon tax. The Senate Committee will thereafter convene to discuss the proposal.
Summary: OCCRI and OGWC submit assessments in compliance with HB 3543. See OGWC Report To Legislature 2013 for details. Both political parties in the Legislative Assembly are coming around to recognize the potential benefits of placing a price on carbon emissions through a neutral-revenue tax. The last assessment report from IPCC, referred to as AR5, issued earlier this year as a draft and the US National Climate Assessment Report also issued earlier this year significantly elevated the sense of urgency in addressing climate change.
Prepared by Don Merrick, September, 2014
Sightline Institute Series On Washington State Initiative 732
For those of you who subscribe to Sightline Institute, you're aware that they publish solid and respected research. Alan Durning, the Executive Director, and Kristin Eberhard, a Senior Researcher, completed a 3-part series on Washington's 2016 ballot initiative that will influence Oregon's legislative efforts next year. So, information presented in this series, despite many constitutional differences, is of value to Oregon policy makers, legislators, and oversight groups like the Oregon Environmental Council. Here's the articles:
Published August 1, Weighing CarbonWA's Tax Swap Ballot Initiative
Published August 2, Does I-732 Really Have A "Budget Hole"?
Published August 3, Weighing The Critiques Of CarbonWA Initiative 732
For those of you who subscribe to Sightline Institute, you're aware that they publish solid and respected research. Alan Durning, the Executive Director, and Kristin Eberhard, a Senior Researcher, completed a 3-part series on Washington's 2016 ballot initiative that will influence Oregon's legislative efforts next year. So, information presented in this series, despite many constitutional differences, is of value to Oregon policy makers, legislators, and oversight groups like the Oregon Environmental Council. Here's the articles:
Published August 1, Weighing CarbonWA's Tax Swap Ballot Initiative
Published August 2, Does I-732 Really Have A "Budget Hole"?
Published August 3, Weighing The Critiques Of CarbonWA Initiative 732